New research shows AI adoption is linked to hiring growth at firms, but it also displaces some high-paying roles. The study, which analyzes data up to 2023, suggests that firms using AI extensively tend to be larger, more productive, and pay higher wages.
📊 What happened to jobs?
Contrary to fears of mass unemployment, AI had not caused major changes in total employment as of December 2023. Losses in exposed roles were largely offset by gains in other jobs and by growth at AI-adopting firms.
Firms that adopt AI heavily see substantial benefits:
- Higher Growth: A large increase in AI use is linked to ~6% higher employment growth and 9.5% more sales growth over five years.
- Productivity: These firms tend to be larger, more productive, and offer higher wages.
📉 Which jobs shrank?
The analysis reveals that exposure to automation is greatest in high-paying roles involving information processing and analysis—tasks AI excels at.
- Top-paying roles: Jobs like management analysts, aerospace engineers, and computer scientists saw employment fall by ~3.5% within firms over five years.
- Business & Finance: These roles shrank by 2% to 2.5%, as they involve tasks matching AI capabilities.
This contrasts with earlier automation waves (1980s-2000s) which mainly displaced middle-skill, routine jobs.
📈 Which jobs grew?
- Legal jobs: These roles gained the most, with a predicted 6.4% increase. They face little direct automation impact and are often in firms that use AI heavily.
⚠️ Risks for Low-Exposure Jobs
Even jobs with little direct AI impact (like food service) can shrink if their employers are slow to adopt the technology. Non-adopting firms grow more slowly, reducing demand for all workers compared to their high-tech peers.
🤖 The Generative AI Factor
The dataset runs up to 2023, largely predating the generative AI boom (ChatGPT). Generative AI might change the equation because it requires fewer examples to learn and can take on a wider range of tasks.
“Generative AI might reduce the gains from shifting work to people, but it could also make everyone more productive — a rising tide that lifts all boats.”